US Elections 2020

[Stavros]

One thing missing from this thread is the possibility -- likelihood -- of a coup d'etat. Trump may well have a strategy to win votes, but his backup is a declaration of martial law, with support from his brownshirts (Patriot Boys and various other heavily armed white supremacists -- dare I say fascists?) and segments of the military. I don't see anyone seriously considering this possibility. I think it's more likely than not. And noone is talking about a response to it, or how to head it off.

BTW, Stavros, you're right, the "squad" and it's policies are not far left, except in the distorted lens of American corporate media. They are more like the "socialists" in Spain, socialist only in comparison with the PP and Vox. I.e., run of the mill social democrats, so not even really anti-capitalist.

Regarding racism, I think you've got it wrong. Change the power dynamic -- the laws and structures (e.g. red-lining real estate practices) supporting racist policies and people's attitude will change. Ibrim Kendi's got a good handle on this.

I agree with your view of the Democrats 'left', and thanks for the reference to Ibrim Kendi whom I had not heard of before, I have just opened his website.

Patrick Cockburn in The Independent offers a depressing view of the Democrats election campaign -in effect, they need to match their rival's 'black ops' and go low if they want to be more effective-

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-a9705321.html

[Del06]

I agree with your view of the Democrats 'left', and thanks for the reference to Ibrim Kendi whom I had not heard of before, I have just opened his website.

Patrick Cockburn in The Independent offers a depressing view of the Democrats election campaign -in effect, they need to match their rival's 'black ops' and go low if they want to be more effective-

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-a9705321.html

The Kendi book I'm reading is "How to be an anti-racist". Very objective, identifying racism as primarily a social power construct, and only secondarily an ideology to support that power construct.

"Moral and educational suasion breathes the assumption that racist minds must be changed before racist policy, ignoring history that says otherwise. Look at the soaring White support for desegregated schools and neighborhoods decades after the policies changed in the 1950s and 1960s. Look at the soaring White support for interracial marriage decades after the policy changed in 1967. Look at the soaring support for Obamacare after its passage in 2010. Racist policymakers drum up fear of antiracist policies through racist ideas, knowing if the policies are implemented, the fears they circulate will never come to pass. Once the fears do not come to pass, people will let down their guards as they enjoy the benefits. Once they clearly benefit, most Americans will support and become the defenders of the antiracist policies they once feared. To fight for mental and moral changes after policy is changed means fighting alongside growing benefits and the dissipation of fears, making it possible for antiracist power to succeed. To fight for mental and moral change as a prerequisite for policy change is to fight against growing fears and apathy, making it almost impossible for antiracist power to succeed."

BTW, thanks for the Cockburn article.

[Stavros]

Thanks for this reference -I like this article too, from The Atlantic by Adam Serwer, with this extract-

"Even after Obama was elected, conservative pundits argued that Obama wasn’t “really popular” because he maintained sky-high support among black voters—who, they implied, should count less. The underlying argument behind the claim, no matter how mundane or outlandish, was that being black confers unearned benefits rather than systemic obstacles to be overcome. Obama became the living, breathing symbol of the narrative that undeserving people of color were being elevated even as hardworking white people were being left behind. In a country where most wealthy CEOs, legislators, governors, presidents, justices, and judges are white Christian men, Republicans believe whites and Christians face more discrimination than anyone else.
What this narrative is meant to obscure is the reality that American policy making has not created some nightmare inversion of power between white people and ethnic minorities, but a landscape of harrowing inequality where people are forced to beg strangers for money on the internet to pay their medical bills. Upward mobility is stagnant; those who are born rich, die rich, and those who are born poor, die poor. Real wages have risen painfully slowly for decades; housing, particularly in urban centers, is unaffordable; and young people are saddled with skyrocketing student debt for educations that did not provide the opportunities they were supposed to."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...cortez/579901/

[broncofan]

I'm a resident of the state of Pennsylvania and just requested my mail in ballot today. This is an option they have in addition to the typical absentee ballot for people who are residents but will not be in state on election day. I will be in state but prefer to mail my ballot in. It was really straightforward and the election council for my county has approved the application and will be sending me my ballot soon.

It's that time of the election cycle when we might look at the electoral map and see what states could turn the election. Halfway down the wiki I link below you can see the states Trump won in 2016. The states he won in 2016 but is behind in include at least Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin. He has a slight lead in Ohio and a slight deficit in Florida. If he takes Ohio, Florida, and Arizona (which he's behind in by about 4%) but loses Michigan, Wisconsin, and PA he would lose. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are 20, 10, and 16 electoral votes respectively.

Anyhow, since I think there's a decent chance he takes Florida and Ohio which are both pretty close right now, I think Pennsylvania is crucially important for Biden.

So much time between now and the election though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_U...ntial_election
https://fivethirtyeight.com/

[MrFanti]

Interesting article but it again, categorizes Black Americans as being monolithic and that is simply not true - although the majority of the media portrays Black Americans as monolithic.
Dig in the weeds within the Black community and you will see that we are not monolithic.

Case in point (which goes against the popular "Defund The Police") that is being broadcast by mainstream media.

81 Percent of Black Americans Want the Same Level, or More, of Police Presence: Gallup
https://reason.com/2020/08/06/81-per...esence-gallup/

Thanks for this reference -I like this article too, from The Atlantic by Adam Serwer, with this extract-

"Even after Obama was elected, conservative pundits argued that Obama wasn’t “really popular” because he maintained sky-high support among black voters—who, they implied, should count less. The underlying argument behind the claim, no matter how mundane or outlandish, was that being black confers unearned benefits rather than systemic obstacles to be overcome. Obama became the living, breathing symbol of the narrative that undeserving people of color were being elevated even as hardworking white people were being left behind. In a country where most wealthy CEOs, legislators, governors, presidents, justices, and judges are white Christian men, Republicans believe whites and Christians face more discrimination than anyone else.
What this narrative is meant to obscure is the reality that American policy making has not created some nightmare inversion of power between white people and ethnic minorities, but a landscape of harrowing inequality where people are forced to beg strangers for money on the internet to pay their medical bills. Upward mobility is stagnant; those who are born rich, die rich, and those who are born poor, die poor. Real wages have risen painfully slowly for decades; housing, particularly in urban centers, is unaffordable; and young people are saddled with skyrocketing student debt for educations that did not provide the opportunities they were supposed to."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...cortez/579901/

[Stavros]

I'm a resident of the state of Pennsylvania and just requested my mail in ballot today. This is an option they have in addition to the typical absentee ballot for people who are residents but will not be in state on election day. I will be in state but prefer to mail my ballot in. It was really straightforward and the election council for my county has approved the application and will be sending me my ballot soon.

May I ask why you are choosing a postal ballot over a vote in person on the day at your designated polling station? It used to be the case in the UK that postal votes were limited to those who could not vote in person, because they were not going to be in the country or the constituency on polling day, be in hospital, and other legitimate reasons. The Blair government changed the rules so make postal ballots an option -for what it's worth in this country I think postal voting should be restriicted as it was before Blair, lagely as a result of some of the questionable things I saw when I was in charge of an election campaign for the Labour Party in London, though I stress this did not involve postal ballots at that time.

[Stavros]

Interesting article but it again, categorizes Black Americans as being monolithic and that is simply not true - although the majority of the media portrays Black Americans as monolithic.
Dig in the weeds within the Black community and you will see that we are not monolithic.

But the Atlantic article that I linked concerns the way in which some Conservative and more extreme White Americans view Black Americans, rather than what Black Amercans think of themseves. I understand the GOP has had a solid 10% of the Black votee in recent years and I think we can agree that yes, it is wrong to lump all Black Americans together. But I do wonder if even that 10% truly agrees that the 45th President has done more for Black Americans than any President since Lincoln. I assume he has heard of Lyndon B. Johnson, but with this guy, you can't be sure.

[broncofan]

May I ask why you are choosing a postal ballot over a vote in person on the day at your designated polling station? It used to be the case in the UK that postal votes were limited to those who could not vote in person, because they were not going to be in the country or the constituency on polling day, be in hospital, and other legitimate reasons. The Blair government changed the rules so make postal ballots an option -for what it's worth in this country I think postal voting should be restriicted as it was before Blair, lagely as a result of some of the questionable things I saw when I was in charge of an election campaign for the Labour Party in London, though I stress this did not involve postal ballots at that time.

There are a few reasons. I always vote in person but I don't think it should be necessary when there's a pandemic even though I'm not super high risk. I think that requiring the vote to be in person is intended to suppress the vote rather than protect against fraud.

I was curious about the process as well. I am already registered to vote, but I had to go through the additional step of filling out an application for a ballot, which is then processed and if approved a ballot is sent to the address at which you're registered.

One ulterior motive I have is that I want to convince my parents who are in their late 70s to get a mail in application. My mother believes it is her responsibility to show up at the polls on election day and cast a ballot against Trump. I haven't been able to convince her that getting a mail in ballot is safer, is legal in Pennsylvania without the requirement that anyone have a reason. If I can give her a sense of how long it takes and how easy it is, then maybe I demystify it for them.

Finally, if my state has provided a process to vote by mail without any qualifying reason, I thought why not do it if I can get a ballot in advance and make sure I deliver it well in advance? I'm not certain I made the right choice here but a ballot is on the way and I will be sending it back well in advance of the deadline.

[broncofan]

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/08/vo...-swing-states/

I thought this was an interesting article about the process in a lot of the swing states, including the controversy over it. Initially I was only worried about a backlog or my ballot not being delivered but apparently my state gives me the option of dropping the ballot off as an alternative to mail as long as it's before 8 pm on election day.

[broncofan]

Stavros brings up an interesting point in my view about the real potential for fraud in mail-in ballots and also about civic engagement. Fred brought this point up earlier but what should our expectation be about the effort people make to vote?

I do think there's a greater potential for fraud in mail in ballots though I don't think it is a significant risk given how much of it would have to take place in a coordinated way to change the election. I think electoral districts should balance the risk of fraud against the unequal burdens people have in making it to the polls. In ordinary times I don't think it's unreasonable to require people to vote in person unless they are unable to.

In this pandemic, someone who is 80 years old or 70 years old might have a 15 or 20% chance of dying if they're infected with covid. We also don't have a great deal of epidemiological data about what someone's risk is standing in line in a crowded building but we do know that Trump has made mask wearing a cultural fault line and one's risk is correlated with other people's compliance.

I don't think voter turnout should be based on risk tolerance or health status. I think the net result of requiring the vote to be in person right now would be to have a greater suppressive effect on voter turnout than it would on fraud. Looking at the states that have mail in voting I do think Trump is going to be yelling fraud at the top of his lungs if he loses.

Just as an aside if anyone wants to talk about the electoral college or the way the math breaks down in that link above, I think Trump has to win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to win if the polls are even close to accurate right now. I didn't realize just how close it had been but he carried Michigan and Pennsylvania by tiny margins of like 11,000 and 45,000 respectively.

I wasn't able to link the section of the wiki with the state by state breakdown but you can find it in section 8.5 of the wiki I linked called "results by state". Hard to be optimistic, even with the polling, but I think Biden probably wins.