2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

[Stavros]

Can I suggest the issue, albeit on slim evidence so far, is that there is a decline in the number of Republicans who are choosing Trump as their nominee, even if it doesn't change the result. If this trend were to be repeated in the election, Trump yet again will fail to beat Biden on the numbers, assuming these two are the candidates.

So yet again we have to consider the Electoral College as the decisive agency, but again only if Trump has the delegates from whichever State he wins, assuming he does win them. It is not yet clear if those States that have changed the way they process the Vote will try to deny voters their choice and choose Trump delegates to go the Electoral College. It may matter in fine margins in States where the winner takes all, but it seems to me this time round that unless there is a serious decline in Biden's vote in every State, I don't see how Trump can win, though I am sure he will claim it has all been rigged if he doesn't.

Will New Hampshire tell us anything new?

[Fitzcarraldo]

Will New Hampshire tell us anything new?

If Trump doesn't dominate, it will tell us something new.

[Stavros]

If Trump doesn't dominate, it will tell us something new.

Off-Piste: I imagine some living in New Hampshire right now would rather be in Florida, but do people in Florida ever go to New Hampshire?

And, who is worse: Trump or Kinski?

The terrifying reign of Klaus Kinski, the most evil actor who ever lived (yahoo.com)

[Fitzcarraldo]

Off-Piste: I imagine some living in New Hampshire right now would rather be in Florida, but do people in Florida ever go to New Hampshire?

And, who is worse: Trump or Kinski?

The terrifying reign of Klaus Kinski, the most evil actor who ever lived (yahoo.com)

Kinski never controlled a government.

[Stavros]

Kinski never controlled a government.

Neither did Trump.

[filghy2]

Can I suggest the issue, albeit on slim evidence so far, is that there is a decline in the number of Republicans who are choosing Trump as their nominee, even if it doesn't change the result. If this trend were to be repeated in the election, Trump yet again will fail to beat Biden on the numbers, assuming these two are the candidates.

The key question is whether those who were supporting other candidates will turn out for Trump now their first choices have dropped out. He should get almost all of Ramaswamy's supporters given he's very MAGA. De Santis was also running as MAGA, but more competent and less baggage, so I think it's likely Trump will get the majority of his supporters as well.

I know you are an incorrigible wishful thinker, but it's interesting that you are so intent on looking for signs of weakness in Trump's support while ignoring all the signs of weakness on Biden's side. The polls are showing Trump leading in the key swing states, while most Democrats would prefer that Biden not be running again.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Neither did Trump.

Kinski never had nuclear codes.

[Fitzcarraldo]

most Democrats would prefer that Biden not be running again.

This message gets hammered over and over in the media, yet no one suggests an alternative. If not Biden, then who?

[Stavros]

The key question is whether those who were supporting other candidates will turn out for Trump now their first choices have dropped out. He should get almost all of Ramaswamy's supporters given he's very MAGA. De Santis was also running as MAGA, but more competent and less baggage, so I think it's likely Trump will get the majority of his supporters as well.

I know you are an incorrigible wishful thinker, but it's interesting that you are so intent on looking for signs of weakness in Trump's support while ignoring all the signs of weakness on Biden's side. The polls are showing Trump leading in the key swing states, while most Democrats would prefer that Biden not be running again.

I understand the thrust of your post, but I would still suggest that Trump cannot win the popular vote, because there is no evidence that it has increased since 2020.

There are some as yet unknown factors, the most obvious being the court cases that one hopes will be dealt with before November. Another is that I am not sure we know yet if those States that have changed the way they process elections would dare to so brazenly find ways to give Trump the Electoral College delegates if he has clearly lost, setting aside any claims of rigging he will undoubtedly make.

The polls mean little, because they merely reflect some opinion right now. Theresa May was persuaded to hold a General Election in 2017 when the polls gave her party a clear lead. She led a catastrophic campaign that trashed the Commons majority she had and left her with a hung Parliament that crushed her career. The polls were wrong.

Yes, Republicans have learned what went wrong in 2020 and may find ways to reduce Democrat voters by shredding the polls, but the fact remains that Trump must gain millions of new voters to stand a chance of taking States.

If Biden has a weakness, it is his lack of charisma. On the other hand, they both have records on which to stand, and Biden's record is superior to Trump's, though whether or not the broadcast media and other sources underline this I cannot say. The opportunity for Trump to alienate people through his Hubris - if he is the nominee he will declare himself President before a single vote has been cast- could turn people off, while Biden retains his dignity.

Another unknown is whether the 'youth vote' if there is such a thing, will be challenged because of the age of the two candidates, because of the US support for Israel -probably less of a factor than some think in terms of outcome- but I have heard on tv elderly Republicans who don't like Trump say they will just stay home, and that could be something some younger votes do too.

It is too early to say, and too many rogue factors may yet flip what some think, or want to be a re-match. But I stand by my basic point: Trump begins from a position of weakness, and I don't see any strengths in his voter support, I see no significant growth, it is as static and stagnant as his brain.

[filghy2]

This message gets hammered over and over in the media, yet no one suggests an alternative. If not Biden, then who?

If Biden announced he wasn't running again alternatives would emerge. I don't think too many thought Bill Clinton or Obama would be two-term Presidents when they announced their candidacies. Do you really think the Democrat Party is in such poor shape that it has no alternative to running an 80 year old with a 38% approval rating?

Even if you discount the polls showing Trump leading in swing states, it's hardly a good reflection on Biden that an opponent with so many negatives is competitive only 10 months out. Trump won't win the popular vote, but that's irrelevant. Lack of enthusiasm for Biden won't help Democrat turnout and he seems to have lost a lot of support from Independents.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ll/ar-AA1ncndR

The big problem with Biden isn't lack of charisma, it's age. He seems to lack mental sharpness and energy and that's only going to get worse through a gruelling campaign and then four more years if he was to win. Most of the current problems may have been due to circumstances beyond his control, but too often he comes across as passive and ineffectual in response. Successful Presidents tend to be defined by how well they respond to adverse developments.

I think the other big problem for Biden is that real wages (after inflation) have fallen over his Presidency, whereas they rose over Trump's term. This may explain a lot of Biden's weakness among Independents and why they may have a rosier view of the economy under Trump, notwithstanding the Covid recession.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_re...ourly_earnings

I don't like Trump any more than you guys, but beating him will require hard-headedness, not wishful thinking. Trump has benefited consistently from opponents underestimating his chances and taking solace in explanations about why he was finished or couldn't win. This seems to be happening again.