For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

[Stavros]

Although the Government wants to reach a deal with the EU on the terms of Brexit and lay the basis for negotiations on post-Brexit trade, the prospect of a 'hard Brexit' crashing out without a deal remains possible. To hard Brexit fanatics the glib response is that the UK will carry on trading with the EU on World Trade Organization [WTO] rules, but what does this means and how easy would that be?

The article below offers a grim prospect of the medium to long term prospects for independent trade deals outside the EU -
https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n18/swati-...do-trade-deals

While the WTO is currently in a slow-burning crisis as the USA has begun sabotaging its operations and may even decide to operate outside the WTO rendering the organization useless, but having serious implications for the UK if it crashes out of the EU, thus:

In a little-noticed policy change issued in March, the administration announced that it might seek to deal with trade disputes outside the WTO system, and possibly defy WTO rulings that it does not like. More ominously, the U.S. recently has refused to approve the start of the selection process for new AB members. It is threatening to hollow out the AB unless the U.S. gets its way on changes to the WTO dispute settlement system that it has yet to specify. This is like what would happen if half the U.S. federal appellate judge positions were empty, and the senators from a single big state such as Texas blocked all new appointments until the Senate passed rule changes ensuring that Texas had an edge in future disputes.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.f67319162614

A pro-Remain article explains the perils of trading under WTO rules, unusual as only one country -Mauritania- operates under WTO.
https://infacts.org/trading-wto-rules-really-mean/
https://medium.com/@MrWeeble/who-act...s-1b6127ce33c6

[Stavros]

This is hilarious, from Boris baby Johnson to Corbyn playing the violin as the ship sinks...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...&v=svwslRDTyzU

[Stavros]

As the Parliament of the UK prepares to start a new session, Boris Johnson has delivered another hysterical burst of rhetoric aimed at convincing the Conservative Party that Theresa May must go, and be replaced by, well, er...Boris Johnson. Writing behind a paywall in the Telegraph, Johnson has accused the Prime Minister of 'surrender', or 'waving a white flag' in the government's negotiations with the EU that will amount to the UK being the loser -

We will remain in the EU taxi; but this time locked in the boot, with absolutely no say on the destination. We won’t have taken back control – we will have lost control.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8519961.html

This is the same Boris Johnson who was at the Cheqeurs meeting which endorsed the very same strategy he now says he opposes, having waited to see who would jump first -it was David Davis, who also endorsed the document at the meeting. Just as Davis was too much of a coward at the time to tell Theresa May and his colleagues he could not support the proposals and waited until he was out of sight to resign, so Boris Johnson followed suit.

But what Boris Johnson has not done, is give us his alternative. He attacks Mrs May with the tone of voice and the desperate rhetoric we now associate with the same man of whom Johnson declared, 'he is unfit to be President of the United States'. Indeed, if Boris Johnson has an alternative plan, it is the American Plan, which is: There is No Plan. Johnson and his chums will cheerfully tell you it doesn't matter because the UK can leave the EU without a deal and operate on WTO terms, at the same time their President is threatening to withdraw from the WTO if it does not obey the demands of the White House with the likely result that the WTO will be a useless body nobody listens to.

The practical reality that thrives in the details is lost to Johnson because he doesn't do detail, being too busy polishing his ego in the mirror. But here is the reality:

Britain’s leading role in evaluating new medicines for sale to patients across the EU has collapsed with no more work coming from Europe because of Brexit, it has emerged.
The decision by the European Medicines Agency to cut Britain out of its contracts seven months ahead of Brexit is a devastating blow to British pharmaceutical companies already reeling from the loss of the EMA’s HQ in London and with it 900 jobs.

A key point here being the extent to which the UK played a leading role in the EU to the benefit of both:

It is understood the MHRA bid for 36 EMA contracts this year but were only awarded two, and these were for drugs for which evaluation had already begun. The situation is a stark contrast to 2016 when the UK was the lead assessor, known as the rapporteur, on 22 applications, and was joint lead or co-rapporteur on 19 multinational applications. This made it the number one in Europe, with Germany’s regulator behind with 22 lead contracts but only 12 co-contracts.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...cipates-brexit

It is hard to see how the UK benefits from leaving the EU, and what that empty phrase 'taking back control' even means. All this is lost on a vain, pompous man who was elected to Parliament to represent the constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip but when the debate on a third runway at Heathrow was held in the Commons, he had buggered off to Kabul for an urgent meeting with the Foreign Secretary who had no idea he was coming and wasn't even there, Johnson meeting the Deputy Foreign Secretary for a meeting he could have had via SKype on a smart phone in the back of a London cab.

And this from a man who may have been told during the campaign to leave the EU that the Leave campaign was illegal in its operation, and partly funded by the Russian Government, which like the government of its toy boy in the White House believes it will benefit from the break-up of the EU. But if he did know about the illegality, he has kept quiet about it, although that in itself is a wondrous feat of self-censorship that would be out of character.

So the battle lines are drawn and it is now only a matter of time time before Theresa May faces a leadership challenge, possibly in a matter of weeks, but that is if Johnson is serious in his bid to follow John Bolton's advice or is just drawing attention to himself because he loves it so much. With the broken-backed Labour party eating its own shit on a daily basis and incapable and unwilling to defend the UK, we appear to be headed into another year of indecision and chaos that makes you wonder if the word 'Government' has any meaning at all.

[Stavros]

With less than 200 days to go before the UK leaves the European Union, the current state of negotiations between the two can be summed up in this headline in today's Guardian:

Brexit: May says Chequers 'only plan' on table after EU calls it unacceptable
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-politics-live

As the Labour Party gathers in Liverpool tis weekend for its Annual Conference, one that will exhibit what a divided party it is, we see that it is led by people drafted in from the Ministry of Truth to re-write the English language in such a way as to produce this drivel:

Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first.

We will prioritise jobs and living standards, build a close new relationship with the EU, protect workers’ rights and environmental standards, provide certainty to EU nationals and give a meaningful role to Parliament throughout negotiations.
We will end Theresa May’s reckless approach to Brexit, and seek to unite the country around a Brexit deal that works for every community in Britain.
https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/nego...-brexit/#first

They could have said: we don't accept the results of a Referendum in which the Leave campaig broke election law and received funding from the Russian government; and we think the UK should remain in the UK, which is what our statement says without saying so. But the Labour Party is a party of spineless cowards, so don't expect a week of inflated bullshit masquerading as 'policy' to make anyone any clearer at the end what the party is going to do.

Stavros has an alternative to Chequers and Labour's we are leaving the EU front door to see if we can sneak in at the back: and this is it:

Put simply, if we accept the UK is leaving the EU, the only way in which it can be done without causing the disruption a sudden departure would do, is
1) to phase the withdrawal over a period of 5-7 years.
2) During this time, the UK will continue to pay its share of the EU budget.
3) The UK will continue to adhere to the four fundamental freedoms of movement of capital, services, people and goods.
4) The UK will continue to participate in the European Parliament.
5) The UK will continue to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
6) In years 1-2, negotiations will focus on the withdrawal of the UK from the agencies of the EU it is a member of.
7) in years 1-3 negotiations will focus on access to the single market and the customs union and the status of EU/UK nationals in each other's jurisdicton, with the ancillary negotiations of
years 1-7 putting together a comprehensive agreement on trade.

I recommend these proposals to the government, and am willing to help at any time.

[Stavros]

The UK has agreed a Draft Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union which must now be agreed by the Parliament of the UK and the European Parliament. The text of the Agreement (585 pages) is here-
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/site...greement_0.pdf

The Withdrawal Agreement was presented to the Cabinet this afternoon and according to the Prime Minister, the Cabinet has accepted it. The Prime Minister will address the House of Commons on Thursday 15th November 2018, and the Commons will debate the Agreement begining in early December and either give its approval, or reject it. In the interim, the leaders of the remaining 27 EU members will meet at an Emergency Summit on the 25th of November to give their approval, which they are expected to do. In theory, this means that the European Parliament will accept the deal, so the only obstacle remains the Parliament of the UK.

So far, the reaction to the Withdrawal Agreement has been hostile, Conservative Brexiteers fuming about capitulation, betrayal, unacceptable compromises, while Labour has claimed it is a bad deal that will not solve any of the problems inherent in Brexit.

Accordinging to one MP the (Conservative) Chairman of the 1922 Committee that runs the party in Parliament has aleady received the 48 letters needed to call a vote of No Confidence in the leader of the Party, though they have yet to confirm this is what they want, and may wait for the outcome of the vote in the Commons in December. So far, the ultras in the party have been exposed as cowards, so we wait to see what happens. If in the interim cabinet members resign, this could create a more toxic situation in the party.

Jeremy Corbyn has said it is a bad deal, but met privately with Theresa May around 10.30-11pm for around 20 minutes apparently to insist that Parliament be given adequate time to scrutinize the deal.

Theresa May has succeeded in negotiating a Withdrawal Agreement that means the UK wil not crash out of the EU without any agreements -so far. The terms of the agreement provide for a transition period from the formal exit in March 2019 to last until December 2020 during which the UK will remain in the Customs Union, and open talks on the future trading relationship with the EU. The agreement allows for an extension to this transitional period.
To hard core Brexiteers, this means the Withdrawal Agreement is 'Brexit in Name Only'- the UK will pay £39 Billion into the EU budget; free movement of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU will remain for the transition period; the UK will remain in the Customs Union, and legal disputes will be made by the European Court of Justice.

There is not a shred of evidence that any other MP could have negotiated a better deal, and it remains to be seen if the Commons does in fact back the deal, even as commentators on tv this evening said it would fail. But if it fails, what is the alternative to a No Deal crashing out of the EU in March 2019 with all that implies with regard to the value of sterling, and chaos at the key border crossings of Dover and Calais? Some say a second referendum, others a General Election. Too early to say.

This is either a triumph for Theresa May, or the last act of her leadership of the Conservative Party. She has taken on the job nobody else wanted, and delivered as good a deal as anyone could get. It would be tragic if the cowards in the Conservative Party and the Saboteurs in the Labour Party were, in a pincer movement to force her out of office, when the two leading contenders to replace her are Sajid Javid and Boris Johnson, and when the General Election Labour yearns for might not give them the victory they assume it will.

We are again on the edge of a cliff. It is just possible that when the time comes next month, Parliament will approve the deal, knowing that once the Withdrawal Agreement facilitates the UK's exit from the EU, we can begin the even more painful process of negotiating the longer term relationship with the EU. There is a long way to go before the UK leaves the EU in its entirety.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...u-need-to-know
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-in-ukeu-talks

[filghy2]

This is either a triumph for Theresa May, or the last act of her leadership of the Conservative Party.

It's not looking good for her. The problem is that the deal is the classic compromise that pleases nobody and too many people are likely to think it is in their political interests to oppose it. The hard-line Brexiters would rather blow up the government than accept a compromise on their Brexit pipedream. The DUP won't accept anything that treats Northern Island differently to the rest of the UK. Corbyn and his advisers seem to care about the issue only as political opportunity, so they won't do anything that lets the PM off the hook.

This would be poetic justice in a sense, given the PM spent most of the past two years trying to appease the Brexiters by making impossible promises and also made serious blunders like rushing to invoke Article 50 without having a plan. It would also be poetic justice if Boris Johnson finally had to take responsibility for resolving the mess he helped create rather than just spouting rhetoric from the sidelines.

To be fair, it may be an impossible task for anybody to come up with a solution. That's the paradox of Brexit. The majority knew what they were against, but there was no common view on the alternative. There may be no feasible Brexit solution that can attract majority support, which means that you Brits may be stuck in this mess for some time.

[Stavros]

As expected, and despite a last minute threat from Spain, the EU has endorsed the Withdrawal Agreement that it secured with the UK.

The next stage will begin on Tuesday 4th of December when the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration is put before Parliament for a 'meaningful vote', expected on Tuesday 11 December.

Early signs are that Conservative MPs who do not approve of the Agreement and the Declaration will join with Labour to sabotage the smooth transition of the UK out of the EU, without offering anything meaningful in its place. There could be a leadership challenge to Mrs May mounted from within her own party, while Labour has abandoned any pretence that it even cares about the EU having decided May will fall, and that there will be General Election which they are going to win. But a new Conservative leader is not going to change the EU's mind on Brexit, and Labour is living in a fantasy world, as there is no guarantee Mrs May will be defeated in a leadershp election and no reason for her successor to ask Parliament to call for a new General Election.

So the most stupid decision Parliament has made in the last 100 years has been matched by the rank stupidity of Conservative and Labour MPs who appear to believe that we have not harmed ourselves enough, and that more self-inflicted punishment must take place. Stupid is, as stupid does.

As for the President, is it not enough that UK taxpayers service the US debt but must pay even more? Why can't Americans pay off their own insane debt? The UK is in a weak and vulnerable position and will be desperate to sign a trade deal with anyone anywhere, but surely the US should follow its leader and focus on America First, not least as thousands of people lose their jobs in the auto sector because tariffs have raised the costs of making cars consumers don't want to buy.

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...al-declaration

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/...184658937.html

[bluesoul]

i wish i was stupid. because then i'd pretend i care what is written above.

[buttslinger]

Looks like Theresa "MAYDAY" May survived to die another day? Maybe we can send you some of our WALL to keep all problems out.

[Jericho]

Yeah, she survived...by the skin of her knickers!
40% of her government, have no confidence in her.

She'll come back next week, with the 'new and improved' deal from the EU (the one that was supposedly 'non-negotiable').
The house will reject it, and Corbyn will call for a vote of 'No Confidence' in the Government.
The 'Ayes' will have it...Next stop, General Election.

Along the way, Article 50 will be revoked, or, there'll be a (so called 'Peoples Vote') 2nd referendum.
Either way, we'll stay in Europe....Fucking Hallelujah!