Night of the Generals -the endless war in Afghanistan

[Stavros]

I doubt that it is even possible for outsiders to build or rebuild a nation. It seems to work only when there is sufficient internal commitment and consensus, as in Germany and Japan after WWII. Otherwise it is never self-sustaining, and the only choice is whether to remain indefinitely trying to prop things up or cut your losses and exit.

Your point about Germany and Japan is crucial to understanding the success in one era, failure in another. Indeed, the very autocracy that was supposedly removed in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan has not led to the formation of a 'liberal' let alone a democratic state in those places, yet that was GW Bush's intention with Iraq, backed up by Tony Blair who said, after the war, "I took the view that we needed to remake the Middle East"- -a breathtaking example of 19th century imperialism from a man who knew nothing then, or now about the region and rarely, if ever went there, relying for information on venal Israelis with their own agenda, and presumably men lke Donald Rumsfeld.
https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/07/do...n-builder.html


But even before Rumsfeld, there was Zbigniew Brzezinski who as Carter's Secretary of State, had no interest in Afghanistan when he claims to have lured the USSR into its futile war in Afghanistan-

"Omar Mateen, the man believed to be responsible for the June 14th 2016 Orlando shooting massacre, was born in America twenty-nine years ago to Afghan parents who’d fled to the US as refugees following the fulfillment of President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski’s scheme to inveigle the Soviets into Afghanistan to give Moscow its own Vietnam. In 1977 Afghanistan had no refugees. It was Brzezinski who set in motion the events that have come full circle through this tragedy and leaves Afghanistan today with the second largest refugee population in the world."
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/brzez...e_1_b_10511358

See also-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone

Rumsfeld was looking for a 'solution' in which al-Qaeda and the Taliban were 'crushed' and therefore of no threat to te USA. Both are still in existence, though al-Qaeda lost its credentials long ago and the remannts of Islamic State are trying to dominate the 'field' which is now in sub-Saharan Africa as well as the Middle East and South Asia. They might not be a direct threat to the USA, but they are a threat too people living in areas where they area active.

The Taliban may have learned a lesson from 9/11, but as they are hostile to IS-K anyway, they might do a deal with the Russians to attack them when required, so the threat of foreign 'terrorists' being given safe haven in Afghanistan may be exaggerrated.

It is not just State-building that has failed, 'we' seem to have failed to convince people in conflict zones that a strong and liberal state is their best option, and in any case, the Governments installed in Iraq and Afghanistan have been so corrupt even educated liberals shun them -and in any case, as with Libya, social bonds are stronger than the State, something the Taliban has exploited in Afghanistan.

And it it not just the resilience of autocracy in the Middle East, but Russia's active measures that have undermined international law and the 'sovereignty' of states, as with its illegal occupation of Ukraine -to which one adds NATO member Turkey's illegal invasion and occupation of Cyprus in 1974 (now they want a 'two state solution'), and northern Syria; China's illegal expansion into the disputed islands of the China ('China'?) Seas, and its ethnic cleansing in Xinjiang. Add in Orban in Hungary, and so far Trump's failed experiment to replace Democacy in America with Dictatorship, and one should be worried because the proportion of people in Liberal Democracies who have lost faith in the system is reaching levels close to one-third of the population, and that is a lot of discontent to deal with.

With some of Trump's supporters declaring their ability and willingness to take up arms to create the state they want, 'defend white America' or whatever the cause is, it might seem far-fetched to imagine a little piece of Afghanistan emerging in the US, but is it? With people like Greg Abbott, Ron deSantis and Kristy Noem in positions of authority, people who have zero interest in the Constitution and the Separation of Powers, I see Liberal Democracy in retreat, and autocracy in the ascendancy -add in Boris Johnson's impatience with the law, be it domestic or international, and the belief by some that Biden and the DOJ are not being aggressive enough in dealiing with Trump and his seditious apostles, giving them space in which to breathe and expand, and you can lose some sleep over the nightmare future, one in which the world burns, and there is noone there to put out the fire.

[Stavros]

The hand-wringing and the despair over the 'humiliating' defeat in Afghanistan -a defeat that was a long time coming- has been transformed from an 'American' (NATO) problem into a 'Biden' problem, but I am not sure the parallel with Vietam is accurate, as I think this is closer to the humilation heaped on President Carter because of the Embassy Siege in Tehran.

The fact is that Rory Stewart is right to say Afghanistan has been changed for the better since 2001, in terms of civil society, education for boys and girls, small business opportunities, a freer and more open media -but the key purpose behind the NATO mission when the US and UK returned to Afghanistan in 2006 (having all but abandoned it after 2002 to wage war in Iraq), was to build strong State institutions, and the Police and Military forces capable of maintaining secure borders and law and order. 15 years later, Officers claim pay for soldiers who don't exist, and the ones who do exist never know when they are going to get paid, while they have no kitchens to feed them, and lack basic equipment -were there no 'Advisers' from the UK and US to deal with this? Defeat, when it came, came from within, a State edifice crumbling in the face of corruption and lies -but as long as the US was paying, why complain? Just take your cut, if you can, buy that safe house in Pakistan, and open an account in the US Virgin Islands.

Needless to say, in the West, the hypocrites have been vocal in transforming their responsibility into someone else's. Here, for example, is what the defeated President Trump said of Joe Biden -

“He ran out of Afghanistan instead of following the plan our Administration left for him—a plan that protected our people and our property, and ensured the Taliban would never dream of taking our Embassy or providing a base for new attacks against America. The withdrawal would be guided by facts on the ground,” Trump said in a statement.
“After I took out ISIS, I established a credible deterrent. That deterrent is now gone. The Taliban no longer has fear or respect for America, or America’s power,” he added.
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...lan-he-left-on

Hmmm- set aside the fact that ISIS may have lost its territory, but has not been defeated, but has been busy killing people from Africa through Western Asia, and that the armed militias who did defeat ISIS on the ground were the Kurds abandoned by the Trump administration (defeat with an American accent in Syria)...and this from the man who granted legitimacy to the Taliban by agreeing to their demand that they negotiate without the presence of the Afghan Govt (see the Chris Wallace/Mike Pompeo link below), who even wanted to invite the Taliban to Camp David, now there's a Photo Op that would make sense today.

Mike Pompeo added his support for 'America First' (? Where have I heard that phrase?) -denying the legitimacy he and his boss gave the Taliban. Hs proposal is to bomb them....to crush the Taliban with air power. Can you believe this is what he told Chris Wallace?

“They [the Biden Admnistraton] should go crush these Taliban who are surrounding Kabul,” he bellowed. “We should do it with American airpower, we should put pressure on them, we should inflict cost and pain on them. We shouldn’t be begging them to spare the lives of Americans, we should be imposing costs on the Taliban until they allow us to execute our plan in Afghanistan.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/chris-...ban-legitimacy

Hmmm...it's that 9/11 feeling all over again: bomb them out of Govt, then spend another 15-20 years and another $85 billion to 'execute our plan in Afghanistan'? And what is that plan, Mr President-wannabee? Tackling the narcotics trade?

The Taliban once opposed the opium/heroin trade, now they are more pragmatic and can't get enough of the dollars it brings them -
anyone heard Trump or Pompeo concede the US wasted $8 Billion trying to eliminate the narcotics trade in Afghanistan? The word 'Mugs' comes to mind, and no doubt in 2024 with a humiliated Biden struggling to contain his own party the Mugs will be angling for another opportunity for the US to self-harm.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...an-2021-08-16/

Look for the defeat at home, and you find it in Texas and Florida, where Masks or the lack of them are filling hospitals with Covid cases; where a 74-year old man can marry a 14-year old girl and it's legal; when a 12-year old who becomes pregnant after being gang-raped cannot get an abortion, presumably because Greg Abbott must first consult his Bible.

The Taliban in its own form in the US is right there, trying to take over the US Govt on the 6th of January 2021. Who will take them on?

[Stavros]

If the Taliban has changed and is now a more pragmatic organization than it used to be, its relations with India may prove a test to pass, given India's extensive investments in Afghanistan, described in the link below. I can imagine reckless elements in the Taliban targeting Sikhs and Hindus as they have in recent years, but if India pledges to maintain its investments, and the Taliban are shrewd enough to play India off against the Pakistan-China alliance (China investing in Pakistan as part of its 'Belt and Road' project), then they could relieve Modi of drastic measures. We shall see.

India's investments in Afghanistan-
https://eurasiantimes.com/indian-arm...seizing-kabul/

[IloveTransGirlz]

Sad reality for Afghanistan
#SaveAfghanWomen

[Stavros]

This is a perceptive article from Katy Balls -Deputy Political Editor of The Spectator, mostly a pro-Conservative journal. She highlights Boris Johnson's weak position, both inside his own party and in terms of the UK's relationship with the USA. Apparently Johnson has only spoken by phone with Biden three times since January and the UK was not 'consulted' before Biden announced the troop withdrawals that have been assumed to have been the trigger for the Taliban's rapid advance throughout Afghanistan.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-losing-battle

Curious how Trump gets away with it again.
-Who praised the Taliban and wanted to invite them to Camp David? Trump.
-Who granted the Taliban the legitimacy they craved by agreeing to negotiations with no pre-conditions? Trump.
-Who surrendered to the Taliban demand that the Afghan Govt not be equal partners in the negotiations? Trump.
-Who broadcast in advance the USA's intention to withdraw from Afghanistan, handing the strategic initative to the Taliban? Trump.

Is it legal for a Presidential candidate to be hundreds of millions of dollars in debt? Could Trump actually be bankrupt if a complete audit was made of what he owns, and what he owes? He may be investigated for money laundering in Scotland -did someone really turn up with $60 million in cash to buy Turnberry?

Boris Johnson and Donald Trump -living off other people's money. How dd they ever get even close to positions of power?

[Jericho]

Boris Johnson and Donald Trump -living off other people's money. How dd they ever get even close to positions of power?

It's their talent, charm and towering intellect, innit!
Nah, I'll go with a conspiracy theory, its more believable...