Thought for the Day

[broncofan]

Good post about mutation risk and mortality v. infection numbers. I want to add that I can only assume his observation that so many vaccinated people have died is confirmation bias. If there is a 90% reduction in risk that vaccinated people die and there are more vaccinated than unvaccinated people and thousands dying every day, plenty of vaccinated people WILL die. As we discussed in another thread, a higher proportion of the vaccinated are already in a higher risk age category which can confound direct comparison.

I would tell Nick that the emergence of new variants are hypothesized to be more likely to occur in cases of immunosuppressed people waging long battles against the disease. I shudder to think of what his solution would be ....bc we know he's against training their immune systems to recognize the virus by being vaccinated.

[Nick Danger]

Don't know much about history
Don't know much biology

Mutations are just random variations in the genetic code that occur when it is replicated. The mutations that prosper are the ones that offer some advantage in survival and reproduction. The more the virus is spreading, the more mutations will occur, and the more the likelihood that some will be harmful. That is why the problematic mutations are originating from poor countries where vaccination rates are low (the latest one from Southern Africa). If your hypothesis was correct, they would be originating mainly from countries with high vaccination rates.

As for your other claim, the latest data show that unvaccinated people are nearly 6 times more likely to be infected than fully-vaccinated people, and 14 times more likely to die.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...vaccine-status

But why look anything up when you can just invent some shit in your own mind. You really are a determined idiot.

Showing your age with that song reference Flighty.

Let's get something straight - YOU'RE saying I'm an anti-vaxxer, I never said it. Nor have I ever claimed to be a biologist or some kind of virus expert, nor even a person who has done all the reading. The virus isn't part of my life until other people make it part of my life. If there's a vaccine and you think it might help you, you should definitely get it.

What I am is anti-lockdown. Anti-mask, anti-travel restriction, anti-mandate. I don't care if millions of people die, hell, I don't care if BILLIONS of people die. There are 8 billion people on the planet, half of that would be objectively better. We've identified the at-risk demographic. They should be in quarantine and taking personal responsibility for their survival, letting the rest of us get on with life, it's their problem.

But just as is inherent to all other aspects of liberal society, the answer is to pull those without the problem back down to the level of those with the problem instead of forcing those with the problem to fucking deal with it.

Biden's mandate is a slippery slope. If you don't believe me, believe the decisions of the courts who keep shooting them down as unconstitutional. Biden doesn't give a shit if his orders are constitutionally sound or not, he left the Constitution in his wake long ago and he's come right out and said as much. Somebody really ought to be keeping an eye on this character.

Good post about mutation risk and mortality v. infection numbers. I want to add that I can only assume his observation that so many vaccinated people have died is confirmation bias. If there is a 90% reduction in risk that vaccinated people die and there are more vaccinated than unvaccinated people and thousands dying every day, plenty of vaccinated people WILL die. As we discussed in another thread, a higher proportion of the vaccinated are already in a higher risk age category which can confound direct comparison.

I would tell Nick that the emergence of new variants are hypothesized to be more likely to occur in cases of immunosuppressed people waging long battles against the disease. I shudder to think of what his solution would be ....bc we know he's against training their immune systems to recognize the virus by being vaccinated.

You're getting as bad as Flighty at putting words in my mouth. I didn't "observe" that so many vaccinated people have DIED. I observed that when I've seen high-profile Covid cases in the news lately they have been in fully-vaccinated people. Keira Knightley is the most recent one I remember.

You guys are really arguing with the wrong person about this. I think every single person should do every damn thing he can do to make sure that he personally survives this virus. Just don't even TRY to tell me what to do about it.

[filghy2]

Let's get something straight - YOU'RE saying I'm an anti-vaxxer, I never said it. Nor have I ever claimed to be a biologist or some kind of virus expert, nor even a person who has done all the reading.

I said no such thing - I simply refuted your ill-informed speculations. I'm not a biologist or virus expert, either - it's just takes a bit of basic logic and research.

This is another example of your straw man habit.
You dispute with my false claims about vaccines? You are saying I'm an antivaxxer.
You don't like me expressing crude derogatory stereotypes about other cultures? You want to make me change my way of life.
You think that police often unfairly target black people? You want to let criminals run free.

When other people show that you've got something wrong why not have the personal integrity to concede? You don't have to say sorry you were wrong. Just let it go, ffs, rather than trying to hide behind a smokescreen of bluster.

[filghy2]

I never said I was an anti-vaxxer, Bronco, I said I wasn't going to get it because I don't need it, I'm immune to the virus and practically everything else, it's a gift. I have a VERY aggressive immune system and I don't want to take any chances on fucking it up by letting them inject me with some experimental vaccine I don't need.

The virus isn't part of my life until other people make it part of my life. I don't care if millions of people die, hell, I don't care if BILLIONS of people die. There are 8 billion people on the planet, half of that would be objectively better. We've identified the at-risk demographic. They should be in quarantine and taking personal responsibility for their survival, letting the rest of us get on with life, it's their problem.

Have you heard of natural selection? It's nature's way of limiting the numbers of people who refuse to assess risks and take appropriate action to avoid them. It works only gradually over a long period, but if we are entering a new era of pandemics there might be time.

From what you've told us about your age group I'm pretty sure the risk for you is not trivial. Have you even looked into this? If the virus keeps spreading there is a high probability you will get it eventually.

[filghy2]

Here's the data on risk by age group. The risk of death for someone 50-64, for example, is 25 times that of a young adult. It's not as if it affects only a small segment of the population and there's no risk for everyone else.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...th-by-age.html

[Nick Danger]

Have you heard of natural selection? It's nature's way of limiting the numbers of people who refuse to assess risks and take appropriate action to avoid them. It works only gradually over a long period, but if we are entering a new era of pandemics there might be time.

From what you've told us about your age group I'm pretty sure the risk for you is not trivial. Have you even looked into this? If the virus keeps spreading there is a high probability you will get it eventually.

To quote the great Mel Brooks, tragedy is when I cut my finger. Comedy is when you fall into an open sewer and die. Again, this virus is not my problem, I'm immune to it.

[Nick Danger]

I said no such thing - I simply refuted your ill-informed speculations. I'm not a biologist or virus expert, either - it's just takes a bit of basic logic and research.

This is another example of your straw man habit.
You dispute with my false claims about vaccines? You are saying I'm an antivaxxer.
You don't like me expressing crude derogatory stereotypes about other cultures? You want to make me change my way of life.
You think that police often unfairly target black people? You want to let criminals run free.

When other people show that you've got something wrong why not have the personal integrity to concede? You don't have to say sorry you were wrong. Just let it go, ffs, rather than trying to hide behind a smokescreen of bluster.

"You are saying I'm an antivaxxer." Bronco said it.
"You want to make me change my way of life." You do want me to change my way of life.
"You want to let criminals run free." You do want to let criminals run free.

What are we arguing about? Whether or not I'm allowed to have a personal opinion on the virus? Tip: I am. My opinion is, it's not that dangerous, and we need to stop acting like it is. But there's no getting past the political narrative on this thing, it's just going to have to play itself out. Under our current administration, God only knows how many more children we're going to damage before we finally allow the least vulnerable group of all to take off their goddamn surgical masks and be children again.

[filghy2]

What are we arguing about? Whether or not I'm allowed to have a personal opinion on the virus? Tip: I am.

I suppose you are. We're just pointing out that your opinion is not based on any evidence, and you seem to resent that. The idea that you have some personal immunity is just plain stupid.

I assume you had the usual vaccinations for various things as a child and never gave it any further thought. The only difference with this disease is that your political tribe has decided to make a point of not taking it seriously. The real reason you resist getting vaccinated is that supposed liberals tell you you should. If you are prepared to do so for a short overseas trip then your claimed reservations can't have amounted to much.

You remind me of a child throwing a tantrum because it can't have dessert until it eats its vegetables.

[Nick Danger]

I suppose you are. We're just pointing out that your opinion is not based on any evidence, and you seem to resent that. The idea that you have some personal immunity is just plain stupid.

I assume you had the usual vaccinations for various things as a child and never gave it any further thought. The only difference with this disease is that your political tribe has decided to make a point of not taking it seriously. The real reason you resist getting vaccinated is that supposed liberals tell you you should. If you are prepared to do so for a short overseas trip then your claimed reservations can't have amounted to much.

You remind me of a child throwing a tantrum because it can't have dessert until it eats its vegetables.

I told you my reservations didn’t amount to much and that I was probably going to end up getting it anyway. You remind me of a child who can’t read gud.

You think there’s something you know about the virus that I don’t? We’ve drawn different conclusions from the same data set, if your processor wasn’t all mucked up by propaganda you’d realize that and save your breath.

[filghy2]

I never said I was an anti-vaxxer, Bronco, I said I wasn't going to get it because I don't need it, I'm immune to the virus and practically everything else, it's a gift. I have a VERY aggressive immune system and I don't want to take any chances on fucking it up by letting them inject me with some experimental vaccine I don't need. I may get it anyway, being unvaccinated is starting to interfere with my travel plans, and I'm not more scared of what the vaccine might do to my immune system than I am disappointed that I won't get to travel to Germany in February to reunite with an old Air Force friend and go catch a Wolf Alice show unless I get the damn thing.

Far as vaccines for everyone else, I mean, good luck with that. Seems like every time some high-profile Covid case hits the news these days it's someone who was fully vaccinated, so I'm not really seeing it as effective, and I'm also not convinced the vaccine itself isn't what's pushing the virus into so many different mutations. I mean if it weren't encountering resistance why would it mutate?

As for your other claim, the latest data show that unvaccinated people are nearly 6 times more likely to be infected than fully-vaccinated people, and 14 times more likely to die.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...vaccine-status

I told you my reservations didn’t amount to much and that I was probably going to end up getting it anyway. You remind me of a child who can’t read gud.

You think there’s something you know about the virus that I don’t? We’ve drawn different conclusions from the same data set, if your processor wasn’t all mucked up by propaganda you’d realize that and save your breath.

Both those claims are clearly incorrect