2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

[KnightHawk 2.0]

The only person that should replace President Joe Biden at the top of ticket in the upcoming election,if he decides to step aside,is the current sitting Vice President Kamala Harris,who will energize the democratic base and voters and is more than qualified to be president. No other potential candidate even comes close. And she will mop the floor with Donald Trump in a public debate,because she will fact check and not let him get away with all the lies he tells every time he opens his mouth.

[broncofan]

I haven't seen a lot of her, but some of the dislike does not seem to be rationally-based, as with Hillary Clinton. I recall a successful politician who used the line "Yes, we can" a lot, so that can't be a substantive objection. Incidentally, he wasn't experienced either.

The more substantive objection is that she did poorly in the primaries last time. She probably wouldn't be first choice if they were starting from scratch, but I can see the argument that she might be the only feasible option at this stage.

Anyway, if Biden is refusing to stand down because he doesn't think KH is electable that's really on him: for not allowing an orderly process to find the best successor and for choosing her as VP (especially when he says he wasn't originally intending to run again). Even if he wasn't so bad a year ago, it was still a poor decision in risk assessment terms.

Yes, it was during that primary season that a lot of people started to take her less seriously. I'm not sure what happened or if she had a number of bad debate performances. I can't comment much about how she'll do except to say that I think there is unlikely to be an orderly process to choose a successor and she therefore would seem to be next in line based on the VPs role during presidential administrations.

Not to harp on Biden's decline and why he didn't stand down but I would guess that when people get to a certain age, they know they have suffered cognitive decline in some respects and have learned how to work around it. It's possible that the creeping deficits don't matter that much for overall performance in a job, but reach a critical mass where the person seems, on the whole, decrepit. And this is exactly where they lose insight into why it's a problem.

And it's interesting that we don't have a good measure of what kind of loss of performance matters and what doesn't. I'm somewhat interested in this subject, but we see it with baseball players and tennis players in their late 30s. In sports that demand elite reflexes, the best of all time can suddenly find themselves unable to compete with the top 50 or 100. Certainly other activities don't demand peak reflexes or physical endurance, but all sorts of cognitive parameters age at different rates and matter to different degrees depending upon what one is doing. Perhaps the wisdom of a statesman can withstand losses of short-term memory, if experience and judgment become more important. These too, can be eroded in time.

[broncofan]

if experience and judgment become more important. These too, can be eroded in time.

I should probably say temperance and judgment. But I'm curious what happens now. I did not listen to Trump's speech but I heard in real time from people I trust that it was a shitshow. I'm also curious whether people think Biden will end up stepping down. Not whether he should (seems to be a lot of agreement on that) but whether he eventually will.

[filghy2]

I should probably say temperance and judgment. But I'm curious what happens now. I did not listen to Trump's speech but I heard in real time from people I trust that it was a shitshow. I'm also curious whether people think Biden will end up stepping down. Not whether he should (seems to be a lot of agreement on that) but whether he eventually will.

Hard to say. Logically, politicians should bow out when they've clearly lost the confidence of their own party, but many convince themselves they are indispensable and try to hang on. He may dig in out of resentment at people trying to force him out (apparently, he has a grudge against Obama for persuading him not to run in 2016). The other thing is that the only way he can avoid a humiliating end to his career is to pull off an unlikely win, so he might think a 20-30% chance is still worth taking. It's a testament to Trump's weaknesses that the polls haven't been even worse.

What an appalling situation you are in. One candidate who struggles to complete sentences versus another who completes way too many sentences that are full of deranged nonsense. Once candidate who is deflated versus another who is ridiculously over-inflated.
One candidate whose party has lost faith in him versus another whose party has made him a demigod. The personality cult has gone off the charts since the shooting.

[Fitzcarraldo]

Is everybody happy now?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...ace-rcna159867

[KnightHawk 2.0]

Is everybody happy now?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...ace-rcna159867

And right on cue,Donald Trump and his enablers in Congress and the US Senate are celebrating that President Joe Biden decided to step down. And now are hurling nasty attacks at Kamala Harris.

[KnightHawk 2.0]

From what I'm seeing, there's a good chance Biden might drop out by end of the weekend.

You were right. President Joe Biden announced he is stepping down from his reelection campaign,and endorsed. Vice President Kamala Harris,and she is the right choose to replace him at the top of the ticket,nobody else is. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...tes-rcna162646

[broncofan]

I am in a group chat where everyone thinks media bullies pushed biden out. The problem with that argument is that while there may be some bad faith bullies, there were also numerous people close to him that saw something and felt they couldn't remain quiet. And when these people starting talking to each other, the ball got rolling. And it took a while. But Obama is not saying something he doesn't believe bc donors want Joe out...or out of pettiness or mean-spiritedness. There were just too many people who must have been acting in good faith unless everyone is a liar or fraud. Too many people with diverse interests, of differing proximity to Biden, and without any obvious character problems.

There's also the possibility that he had a neurological exam to clear himself and received a diagnosis such as Parkinson's. I know that is speculation, but that's all I'm claiming it is. There were too many people telling him to drop out for it to have been a politically motivated "coup" as some melodramatic people would put it. And too many loyal to him as a human being, but not willing to remain quiet if they thought he showed signs of deterioration. We'll see what happens from here.

[filghy2]

I am in a group chat where everyone thinks media bullies pushed biden out.

Yet the other side thinks these same media were in a conspiracy to cover up his condition. These people are almost like mirror images of each other.

This episode has been like a litmus test for whether people are blind partisans or evidence-based analysts who are worth reading. Fortunately, all the people whose opinions I follow came out and said he should step down after the debate.

[filghy2]

There's also the possibility that he had a neurological exam to clear himself and received a diagnosis such as Parkinson's. I know that is speculation, but that's all I'm claiming it is.

It looks like people in his circle finally convinced him that he couldn't win and it was better to go now.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...d-out-00170106

"When the campaign commissioned new battleground polling over the last week, it was the first time they had done surveys in some key states in more than two months, according to two people familiar with the surveys. And the numbers were grim, showing Biden not just trailing in all six critical swing states but collapsing in places like Virginia and New Mexico where Democrats had not planned on needing to spend massive resources to win.

With that knowledge and the awareness that more party elders, including more of his former Senate colleagues, would pile on the public pressure campaign, a sudden exit offered the president his best chance to make it appear that the decision came on his own terms. It was a face-saving move of high importance to Jill Biden, who, according to people familiar with recent conversations, was adamant that her husband’s dignity be preserved."