2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

[filghy2]

The 2022 midterms did not go as the polls predicted.

Wrong. The polls overall were reasonably accurate, but most pundits chose to ignore them because of historical experience.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ling-accuracy/

Over-extrapolating from single data points is not usually a good idea.

[filghy2]

Who could beat Trump? Give me a name of a Democrat who could beat Trump in 2024. Not one has stepped up.

According to this poll a generic Democrat could do 12% points better than Biden.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...n-alternative/

[filghy2]

Joe Biden!

Aren't you the same guy who was previously bemoaning the fact that both parties couldn't find younger and better candidates than Biden and Trump?

[Fitzcarraldo]

According to this poll a generic Democrat could do 12% points better than Biden.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...n-alternative/

Name a viable Democratic candidate. We can't vote for a generic candidate. Seems to me that stepping forward to run for office is an essential quality of leadership.

[filghy2]

You are sounding like Mr Fanti - repeating the mantra "but nobody's stepped forward" and ignoring the counter-argument that they would if Biden stepped aside. Are you seriously saying that if Biden had a heart attack tomorrow there would be no viable alternative?

Here's some possibilities that were mentioned previously.

When it comes to the Democrats, here are some possible candidates. Whoever it is, I think it wouldn't be a bad idea if the candidate was a governor. Someone who has experience running an executive branch of government. The candidate should also be in the age range of 45-70.

Governor Gavin Newsome (CA). He is 55 and been the governor of California since 2019. From what I can tell, he is popular with the progressive wing of the party and I can see him going toe to toe with Ron De Santis or Trump because he is a little bit of a prick and I think that is what you need sometimes in politics. The only downside is, I don't see how would do in the middle of parts of the country in a general election.

Governor Gretchen Whitmer (MI). If the Democrats are going to stay in the White House in 2024 and beyond, they're going to need the win the state of Michigan. She has been the governor since 2019 and she won her reelection campaign defeating a MAGA Republican. The plus side is she is a woman. The downside is, she is a white woman and I can already see some issues a rising if she has to face Kamala Harris in the primaries.

Governor Phil Murphy (NJ). He is 65 and although he narrowly won reelection last year, he seems to have rebounded and doing a good job in 68. The only downside he is not well known outside of the tri-state area (New York, NJ, and Connecticut) and the fact that he is from the east coast may cost him votes in the middle of the country. The same goes for the Governor Ned Lamont (CT), who did a great job running his state during the pandemic and the recovery process.

[Fitzcarraldo]

You are sounding like Mr Fanti - repeating the mantra "but nobody's stepped forward" and ignoring the counter-argument that they would if Biden stepped aside. Are you seriously saying that if Biden had a heart attack tomorrow there would be no viable alternative?

Here's some possibilities that were mentioned previously.

I've repeated the question because I haven't seen an answer.

If it's so obvious any other candidate would do better, why is it so hard to identify one? Of course people would choose an imaginary ideal candidate over reality.

If Biden had a heart attack tomorrow, I'm not sure there would be a viable alternative, because no one has stepped forward.

Newsome has said repeatedly that he supports Biden and is not interested in running at this time. He's one of very few Democrats who has actually supported Biden unequivocally. And the simple fact that he is from California would alienate lots of swing voters.

I've heard of no presidential aspirations from Whitmer. I've never even heard of Murphy.

[Stavros]

Aren't you the same guy who was previously bemoaning the fact that both parties couldn't find younger and better candidates than Biden and Trump?

I think I was. But my post was about the contest between Biden and Trump. Of course I would prefer a generational change in the US, but it is not my country and it is up to the Americans to get a grip. It matters to the rest of us for all the usual international political and economic reasons, plus, though it is not my favourite country -Canada in that region wins all the contests- I don't want to see the US decline under a lunatic like Trump or his supporters, because I fear a degree of social conflict in the US becoming more common and violent.

A deeper view concerns the fate of Liberal Democracy, a set of political views and arrangements that has created a political space for people that in so many other systems are closed off, banned, or become arenas of violence and hate. It is not perfect, and it has of course evolved since the days of Hobbes and Locke, but it is when compared to the alternatives that one sees the importance of having both stable government based on the rule of law, and civil society free to act without the interference of the State.

In these fraught times, and as a riposte to morons like Trump, but also New Wave Fascists like the late Roger Scruton (an Orban fan) I link the lecture Quentin Skinner gave in Stanford which offers an explanation of 'our' political heritage and why it matters so much. The lecture itself is just over an hour, and is typical of the kind of clear presentation Skinner is famous for, being one of four outstanding political philosopher from the UK (followed by Alan Ryan, John Gray and John Dunn).

[filghy2]

If Biden had a heart attack tomorrow, I'm not sure there would be a viable alternative, because no one has stepped forward.

I guess they'd have to prop him up like in Weekend at Bernies, then. According to your logic, the only alternatives would be Marianne Wilkinson and Dean Phillips.

[Fitzcarraldo]

I guess they'd have to prop him up like in Weekend at Bernies, then. According to your logic, the only alternatives would be Marianne Wilkinson and Dean Phillips.

And your alternative seems to be anyone but Biden, which is incredibly naive. Biden got elected because he was essentially the ultimate compromise Democrat, and he pretty much remains that.

[Stavros]

This sums up the problem with Trump voters: a man who not only used the Office of President to enrich himself and his family through more visits to his own golf courses than any other President in history, and the 'Abraham Accords' which really were just Jared Kushner's business deal; and the mere idea he is out there for the 'people' when he has nothing but contempt for the American people and their political system.

If she can't see what is right in front of her, if she is prepared to simply ignore the facts, how can one persuade her or people like her to vote for a better person? The only consolation may be that she remains in a minority of Americans, but a minority that can affect election outcomes in swing states. Depressing.

"Tina Lorenz, who said she had supported Donald Trump since 2016, was among those who voted for the former president on Tuesday.“He is representing the American people. He is not out for himself. He’s not out for political gain. He’s not out for financial reasons. He doesn’t need money, he doesn’t need fame and fortune. He already has all of that,” Lorenz, 63, said.
“He is out there for the average person. And that’s what’s happening, we’ve become so polarized, that there’s nobody out there for just regular people.”"
Trump takes aim at Haley in combative New Hampshire primary victory speech | Donald Trump | The Guardian